9月18日周三，好意思联储主席鲍威尔的记者会开释出鹰派信号，好意思股在他言语之处一度链接高潮，随后发现苗头不合而掉头下挫转跌，重回午盘前的低点，债市、黄金、汇市也180度大回转。
这主如果因为鲍威尔称好意思联储仅仅在“法规校准计策态度”，莫得事前设定的计策道路，将链接在逐次会议上笔据经济数据来作念出决定，异日降息速率可快、可慢以致还会暂停。
比如他提到了几个计策组合：如果经济保合手郑重且通胀合手续存在，好意思联储会改成更缓缓地降息；而如果劳能源商场不测走弱，或者通胀下落速率快于预期，也准备好激进降息来汇报。
举座来说，鲍威尔意图根除商场东说念主士对“大幅降息50个基点成为新常态”的激进押注。
以下为他在回答媒体发问前的讲稿全文（中英对照）：Good afternoon， my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people.
下昼好，我和我的共事们仍然专注于终了好意思联储的双重方向，即最大化服务和褂讪物价，以造福好意思国东说念主民。
Our economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals. Over the past two years， the labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7% to an estimated 2.2% as of August， we're committed to maintaining our economy's strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2% goal.
好意思国经济总体强盛，并已朝着咱们的方向取得了紧要进展。在当年两年中，劳能源商场已从之前的过热状态降温。搁置8月，通货扩展率已从7%的峰值大幅下落至8月份揣摸的2.2%。好意思联储尽力于于通过支合手最大化服务和将通胀率复原到2%的方向来保合手经济强盛。
Today， the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by a half percentage point. This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance， strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
今天，联邦公开商场委员会决定裁减计策敛迹进度，将计策利率下调50个基点。这一决定反应出咱们越来越有信心，惟有稳妥校准咱们的计策态度，劳能源商场的强盛势头就能在平和经济增长和通胀合手续下落至2%的配景下保合手下去。咱们还决定链接缩表。在简要追想经济发展情况后，我勉强货币计策发表更多观点。
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first half of the year， and available data point to a roughly similar pace of growth this quarter. Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient， and investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from its anemic pace last year. In the housing sector， investment fell back in the second quarter after rising strongly in the first. Improving supply conditions have supported resilient demand in the strong performance of the US economy over the past year. In our summary of economic projections， Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to remain solid， with a median projection of 2% over the next few years.
最近的狡计泄露，好意思国经济步履链接稳步增长。本年上半年，GDP以2.2%的年率增长，现存数据泄露三季度的增长速率随机同样。损失支拨增长保合手韧性，设立和无形金钱投资已从旧年的疲软速率回升。在住房边界，投资在第一季度强盛增长后在第二季度回落。供应条件的改善因循了好意思国经济在当年一年强盛泄露中的韧性需求侧。在咱们的经济预测摘抄中，FOMC委员会参与者大王人预测好意思国GDP增长将保合手郑重，异日几年的预测中值为2%。
In the labor market， conditions have continued to cool. Payroll job gains averaged 116，000 per month over the past three months， a notable step down from the pace seen earlier in the year. The unemployment rate has moved up， but remains low at 4.2%. Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year， and the jobs to workers gap has narrowed overall. A broad set of indicators suggest that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019. The labor market is not a source of elevated in inflationary pressures. The median projection for the unemployment rate in the SEP is 4.4% at the end of this year， four tenths higher than projected in June.
劳能源商场情况合手续降温。当年三个月，名鼎优配非农服务岗亭平均每月加多11.6万个，与本年早些本领的速率比较显著放缓。稳定率有所上升，但仍保合手在4.2%的低位。时势工资增长在当年一年有所放缓，职位空白与求职东说念主数之间的差距总体上有所缩小。一系列狡计标明，劳能源商场的弥留景象当前比2019年疫情爆发前有所缓解。劳能源商场并不是通胀压力高企的根源了。好意思联储经济预测中对本年年底的稳定率中值预测为4.4%，比6月份的预测朝上0.4个百分点。
Inflation has eased notably over the past two years， but remains above our longer run goal of 2%. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.2% over the 12 months， ending in August， and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories， core PCE prices rose 2.7%. Longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored， as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households， businesses and forecasters， as well as measures from financial markets. The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 2.3% this year and 2.1% next year， somewhat lower than projected in June. Thereafter. The median projection is 2%.
当年两年通胀率显著下落，但仍高于咱们2%的长久方向。笔据损失者价钱指数和其他数据揣摸，搁置8月的12个月内，时势PCE价钱将高潮2.2%，不包括波动较大的食物和能源类别，中枢PCE价钱将高潮2.7%。长久通胀预期似乎仍遍及锚定，这反应在对家庭、企业和预测者的平时访问以及金融商场的狡计中。好意思联储经济预测中对本年PCE总通胀率的预测中值为2.3%，现货白银投资来岁为2.1%，略低于6月份的预测。2026年及以后的预测中值为2%。
Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. For much of the past three years， inflation ran well above our 2% goal， and labor market conditions were extremely tight. Our primary focus had been on bringing down inflation， and appropriately so， we are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power， especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food， housing and transportation. Our restrictive monetary policy has helped restore the balance between aggregate supply and demand， easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remain well anchored.
咱们的货币计策步履以促进好意思国东说念主民充分服务和物价褂讪为双重职责。在当年三年的大部分本领里，通货扩展率远高于咱们2%的方向，劳能源商场景象极其弥留。那时咱们的主要重心是裁减通胀率，这亦然理所应当的，咱们锐利地坚硬到高通胀会形成紧要困难，因为它会侵蚀购买力，尤其是关于那些最无力承担食物、住房和交通等必需品高资本的东说念主来说。咱们的法规性货币计策有助于复原总供给和总需求之间的均衡，缓解通胀压力并确保通胀预期遍及锚定。
Our patient approach over the past year has paid dividends. Inflation is now much closer to our objective， and we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% . As inflation has declined， the labor market has cooled， the upside risks to inflation have diminished and the downside risks to employment have increased. We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance， and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate in light of the progress on inflation in the balance of risks.
当年一年，咱们耐烦的策略已获赢得报。通胀当前更接近咱们的方向，咱们愈加确信通胀正合手续向2%迈进。跟着通胀下落，劳能源商场照旧降温，通胀的上行风险减少，服务的下行风险加多。咱们当前合计终了服务和通胀方向的风险随机均衡，鉴于风险均衡中通胀的进展，咱们关心双重使射中各方方向濒临的风险。
At today's meeting， the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a half percentage point to four and three quarters percent to 5%. This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market， and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance.
在今天的会议上，委员会决定将联邦基金利率方向区间下调50个基点，至4.75%到5%。这一计策态度的再行校准将有助于保合手经济和劳能源商场的强盛，并将链接鼓励通胀进一步下落，同期咱们正驱动转向更中性的态度。
We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting. We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time， reducing restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate， the Committee will carefully assess incoming data， the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.
咱们莫得事前设定的计策道路，将链接在每次会议上作念出决定。咱们知说念，过快减少计策法规可能会禁绝通胀降温的进展。同期，过慢减少法规可能会过度削弱经济步履和服务。在商量春联邦基金利率方向区间进行寥落更动时，委员会将仔细评估行将公布的数据、不休变化的出路和风险均衡。
In our Sep FOMC， participants wrote down their individual assessments of an ap0propriate path for the federal funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward， if the economy evolves as expected. The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.4% at the end of This year and 3.4% at the end of 2025. These median projections are lower than in June， consistent with the projections for lower inflation and higher unemployment as well as the changed balance of risks.
在咱们9月份的FOMC会议上，参与官员们笔据各自对异日最可能出现情况的判断，写下了他们春联邦基金利率稳妥旅途的评估，前提是经济按预期发展。中位数预测是，联邦基金利率的稳妥水平在本年年底为4.4%，2025年底为3.4%。这些中位数预测低于6月份的预测，与通胀下落、稳定率上升以及风险均衡变化的预测一致。
These projections， however， are not a committee plan or decision. As the economy evolves， monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals. If the economy remains solid and inflation persists， we can dial back policy restraint more slowly. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly， or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated， we are prepared to respond.
但是，这些预测并非委员会的算计或决定。跟着经济的发展，货币计策将进行更动，以最佳地促进咱们的最大化服务和价钱褂讪方向。如果经济保合手郑重且通胀合手续存在，咱们不错更缓缓地收缩计策法规。如果劳能源商场不测走弱，或者通胀下落速率快于预期，咱们也准备好作念出汇报。
Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate. The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy， maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment， bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal， and keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities， families and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.
计策已准备好应酬咱们在践诺双重职责时濒临的风险和不坚信性。好意思联储被赋予了两个货币计策方向：最大化服务和褂讪物价。咱们仍尽力于于支合手充分服务，将通胀率降至2%的方向，并保合手长久通胀预期遍及锚定。咱们能否成效终了这些方向对总共好意思国东说念主来说王人至关艰难。咱们理解，咱们的步履会影响全好意思的社区、家庭和企业。咱们所作念的一切王人是为了践诺咱们的宇宙职责。好意思联储将养精蓄锐终了最大化服务和物价褂讪的方向。
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