鲍威尔意在强调，起初，好意思联储官员作出任何降息决策齐会嗅觉刻下的经济时势和数据而定，而面前通胀和干事的两大处事之间风险达到平衡，是以是时候开启降息以提振劳能源市集了。
第二，好意思联储将逐次会议作念出决策，不会受到市集对降息预期订价的影响，也不会谈判任何政事身分和议题，而是用“对那时合适的速率或快或慢地承袭行径”。
第三，鲍威尔不认为大幅降息证实好意思国经济零落相近，也不证实干事市集濒临崩溃的旯旮，降息更多是一种防护性质的行径，目的是保捏住经济和劳能源市集“稳健”的近况。
第四，他承认非农干事可能下修，但依旧是个值得参考的首要数据点，其他好意思联储柔和的劳能源数据还包括：逍遥率、干事率、工资增长、职位空白与逍遥东说念主数的比值、离职率等多项缱绻：
重心是，“问题不在于具体数字的水平几何”，而是在曩昔几个月情况发生了变化，好意思国通胀的上行风险确乎鄙人降，干事的下行风险加多，是以当今好意思联储脱手编削计策立场复旧干事。
以下为华尔街见闻整理的鲍威尔9月FOMC大幅降息跋文者会问答要领全记载：问题1：Strong third quarter GDP running 3% so what changed to made the committee go 50. Andhow do you respond to the concerns that perhaps it shows the Fed is more concerned about the labor market， and I guess should we expect more 50s in the months ahead? And based on what should we make that call?
第三季度好意思国GDP预计健硕增长3%，那么是什么变化让好意思联储决定降息50个基点？这是否可能标明好意思联储更回想劳能源市集，异日也会陆续每次降息50个基点？咱们应该证据什么作念出这一判断？
回答1：
Let me jump in. So since the last meeting， we have had a lot of data come in. We've had the two employment reports July and August. We've also had two inflation reports， including one that came in during blackout. We had the QCW report， which suggests that the payroll report numbers that we're getting may be artificially high and will be revised down. You know that we've also seen that anecdotal data like the Beige Book， so we took all of those， and we went into blackout， and we thought about what to do， and we cleared that this was the right thing for the economy， for the people that we serve， and that's how we made our decision. So that's one question.
自前次会议以来，咱们收到了许多数据，有7月和8月的两份非农干事陈诉，还有两份通胀陈诉，其中一份是在好意思联储官员静默期内发布的。还有QCW陈诉标明咱们非农新增干事数可能被东说念主为举高，将会被下调。咱们也看到了像好意思联储褐皮书这样的逸闻数据，是以咱们网罗了统统这些数据，然后参加公开采言的静默期，咱们念念考该奈何作念，并明确了这对经济、对咱们服务的好意思国东说念主民来说是正确的，这等于咱们作念出决定的方式。
So a couple things， a good place to start is the SEP. But let me start with what I said， which was that we're going to be making decisions， meeting by meeting， based on the incoming data， the evolving outlook， the balance of risks. If you look at the SEP， you'll see that it's a process of recalibrating our policy stance， away from where we had a year ago， when inflation was high and unemployment low， to a place that's more appropriate given where we are now and where we expect to be. And that process will take place over time. There's nothing in the SEP that suggests the committee is in a rush to get this done. This this process evolves over time.
（对于异日利率旅途的判断），一个好的起始是看经济预测纲目SEP。起初，咱们将证据收到的数据、不休变化的出路和风险平衡，在逐次会议上作念出决定。望望 SEP你会发现，这是一个从头校准咱们计策立场的过程，隔离一年前通胀高+逍遥率低的立场，转向一个更得当刻下情况和咱们预期的立场。这个过程将跟着时辰的推移而发生。SEP中莫得任何内容标明委员会急于完成（降息）这项处事，这个过程是跟着时辰的推移而发展的。
Of course， that's a projection. That's a baseline projection. We know， as I mentioned in my remarks， that the actual things that we do will depend on the way the economy evolves. We can go quicker， if that's appropriate， we can go slower if that's appropriate. We can pause if that's appropriate. But that's what we're contemplating. Again， I would point you to the SEP as just an assessment of where， what the committee is thinking today， but the individual members， rather， of the committee， are thinking today， assuming that their particular forecasts take， you know， are realized.
天然，这只是一个预测。这是一个基线预测。正如我在发言中提到的，咱们骨子作念的事情将取决于经济的发展方式。若是合适，咱们可以加速（降息）速率，若是合适，咱们可以减速速率。若是合适，咱们可以暂停。但这等于咱们正在谈判的。再次，我想指出，SEP只是对委员会今天的想法的评估，而且是委员会的诸君成员今天的想法，假定他们特定的预测得以终了。
问题2: The projections show that the Fed officials expect the Fed funds rate to still be above their estimate of long run neutral by the end of next year. So does that suggest you see rates as restrictive for that entire period? Does that threaten the weakening of the job market you said you'd like to avoid， or does it suggest that maybe people see the short run neutral as a little bit higher?
预测娇傲，好意思联储官员预计到来岁年底联邦基金利率仍将高于他们对永恒中性利率的揣测。那么这是否意味着您认为利率在统共时间内齐是有截止性的？这是否遏止到您所说但愿幸免的干事市集疲软，是否也意味着东说念主们可能认为短期中性利率会略高一些？
回答2：:
I would really characterize it as this. I think people write down their estimate. Individuals do. I think every single person on the committee， if you ask them， what's your level of certainty around that， and they would say there's a wide range where that could fall. So I think we don't know there are model based approaches and empirically based approaches that estimate what the neutral rate will be at any given time. But realistically， we know it by its works. So that leaves us in a place where we'll be， where we expect， in the base case， to be continuing to remove restriction， and we'll be looking at the way the economy reacts to that， and that will be guiding us in our thinking about the question that we're asking at every meeting， which is， is our policy stance the appropriate one?
我确凿会这样描述它。这是委员会每个官员个东说念主的预估值，若是你问他们对此的笃定进程怎样，他们会说，这个范畴可能很大。是以我认为咱们不知说念是否有基于模子的方法和基于素质的方法可以揣测任何给定时辰的中性利率。但骨子上，咱们通过它的处事道理来了解它。因此，在基本场景下，咱们预计会陆续削弱货币计策，咱们将柔和经济对此的反应，这将辅导咱们念念考在每次会议上建议的问题，即咱们的计策立场是否合适？
We know， if you go back， we know that the policy stance we adopted in July of 2023 came at a time when unemployment was three and a half percent and inflation was 4.2%. Today， unemployment is up to 4.2%， inflation is down to a few tenths above 2%， so we know that it is time to recalibrate our policy to Something that is more appropriate given the progress on inflation and on employment moving to a more sustainable level. So the balance of risks are now even， and this is the beginning of that process I mentioned， the direction of which is toward a sense of neutral， and we'll move as fast or as slow as we think is appropriate in real time， what you have is our individual accumulation of individual estimates of what that will be in the base case.
咱们知说念，若是总结一下，咱们会发当今2023年7月承袭的计策立场是在逍遥率为3.5%和通胀率为 4.2%时承袭的。如今，逍遥率已升至 4.2%，通胀率降至更接近2%，因此咱们知说念，鉴于通胀和干事向更可捏续水平迈进的进展，当今是时候从头编削咱们的计策，使其更合适。因此，风险平衡当今已平衡，这是我提到的阿谁过程的驱动，其主见是朝着中立的主见发展，咱们将证据咱们认为对那时合适的速率或快或慢地承袭行径，点阵图是联储官员对基本场景的个东说念主揣测值。
问题3：How close was this in terms of the decision， you do have the first dissent by a governor since 2005 I think was the weight clearly in favor of a 50， or was this a very close decision?
这是自 2005 年以来第一次有联储理事建议异议，降息50个基点的共鸣意见有若干？
回答3：
I think we had a good discussion. You know， if you go back， I talked about this at Jackson Hole， but I didn't address the question of the size of the cut. And I think we left it open going into blackout. And so there was a lot of discussion back and forth. Good diversity of division. Excellent discussion today. I think there was also broad support for the decision that the committee voted on. So I would add， though， look at the SEP all 19 of the participants wrote down multiple cuts this year， all 19. That's a big change from June， right? 17 of the 19 wrote down three or more cuts， and 10 of the 19 wrote down four more cuts. So， you know， there is a dissent， and there's a range of views， but there's actually a lot of common ground as well.
我认为咱们进行了很好的操办。我在杰克逊霍尔谈到了这个问题，但我莫得回答降息幅度的问题。我认为咱们在静默期之前莫得管束这个问题。因此，咱们进行了多量的操办。不雅点有种种性很好。今天的操办相等精彩。我认为委员会投票通过的决定也得到了世俗的复旧。我想补充少许，望望 SEP，统统19名参与者复旧本年屡次降息，这与6月份比拟有很大变化，19东说念主中有17东说念主复旧本年降息3 次或更多，有10东说念主复旧4次以上的降息。是以，存在不欢跃见，也有种种不雅点，但骨子上也有许多共同点。
问题4： on the pacing here， would you expect this to be running every other meeting?
按照这样的节拍，您是否定为每隔一次会议齐会进行这样（大幅降息）的操办？
回答4：Once we get into next year， we're going to take it meeting by meeting， as I mentioned， we would. There's no sense that the committee feels it's in a rush to do this. We made a good， strong start to this. And that's really， frankly， a sign of our confidence， confidence in inflation is coming down toward 2% on a sustainable basis. That gives us the ability we can， you know， make a good， strong start. But， and I'm very pleased that we did to me the logic of this， both from an economic standpoint and also from a risk management standpoint， was clear， but I think we're going to go carefully meeting by meeting and make our decisions as we go.
一朝参加来岁，咱们将逐次会议操办此事，正如我之前提到的那样。委员会不会急于这样作念（降降息）。咱们也曾取得了致密的起头。坦率地说，这确乎标明了咱们的信心，信赖通胀率将以可捏续的方式下落到 2%。这让咱们有才气取得致密的起头。但是，我很高兴咱们作念到了，无论是从经济角度照旧从风险管束角度来看，这其中的逻辑齐很明确，但我认为咱们将在每次会议上齐审慎行事，并跟着时辰鼓吹作念出决定。
问题5：Your colleagues in your economic projections today see the unemployment rate climbing to 4.4% and staying there， obviously， historically， when the unemployment rate climbs that much over a relatively short period of time， it doesn't typically just stop. It continues increasing. And so I wonder if you can walk us through why you see the labor market stabilizing sort of， what's the mechanism there， and what do you see as the risks?
您的共事在今天的经济预测中预测逍遥率将攀升至4.4%并保捏在这个水平，显豁，从历史上看，当逍遥率在相对较短的时辰内攀升到这个水平时，它频繁不会罢手，而是会陆续上升。是以为什么您认为劳能源市蚁集趋于镇静，其中的机制是什么，您认为存在哪些风险？
回答5：
So again， the labor market is actually in solid condition， and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there. You can say that about the whole economy. The US economy is in good shape. It's growing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down. The labor market is in a strong pace. We want to keep it there that's what we're doing.
是以，劳能源市集骨子上处于稳健状态，咱们今天承袭计策举措的目的是保捏这种状态。你可以说统共经济齐是如斯。好意思国经济情景致密。它正以稳健的速率增，通胀正鄙人降，劳能源市集发展健硕。咱们但愿保捏这种状态，这等于咱们正在作念的事情。
问题6：“新好意思联储通信社”Nick Timiraos的发问，鉴于近期干事数据的大幅修正，今天的行径是否组成追逐，或者此次比典型降息幅度更大的降息是计策利率口头水平上升的完了，因此可以预期加速降息的节拍将陆续下去？
回答6：
multiple questions in every list. So I would say we don't think we're behind. We do not think we're. We think this is timely， but I think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind. So it's a strong move.
咱们不认为咱们落伍（于弧线）了。咱们认为这是实时的（降息），但我认为你可以把这看作是咱们承诺不落伍（于弧线）的符号。是以这是一个强有劲的举措。
I think it's about we come into this with a policy position that was put in place. As you know， I mentioned in July of 2023 which was a time of high inflation and very low unemployment， we've been very patient about reducing the policy rate. We've waited. Other central banks around the world have cut many of them several times. We've waited， and I think that that patience has really paid dividends in the form of our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably under 2% so I think that is what enables us to take this strong move today.
我认为，要害在于咱们以既定的计策立场来搪塞这一问题。如你所知，我提到，2023年7月是高通胀和低逍遥率时间，咱们一直相等耐性肠恭候裁汰计策利率的时机。咱们一直在恭候。天下各地的其他央行也曾屡次降息，但好意思联储一直在恭候，我认为这种耐性确乎带来了陈诉，咱们有信心通胀率将捏续低于 2%，是以我认为这等于咱们今天大要承袭这一有劲举措的原因。
I do not think that anyone should look at this and say， Oh， this is the new pace. You know， you have to think about it in terms of the base case. Of course， what happens will happen. So in the base case， what you see is， look at the SEP you see cuts moving along. The sense of this is we're recalibrating policy down over time to a more neutral level， and we're moving at the pace that we think is appropriate given developments in the economy. And the base case， the economy can develop in a way that would cause us to go faster or slower， but that's what the base case says.
我认为，任何东说念主齐不应该看到这少许就说，哦，（降息50个基点）这是新的节拍。你知说念，你必须从基本场景的角度来谈判。天然，该发生的事总会发生。是以在基本情况下，你看到的是，望望 SEP，你会看到降息在进行。这意味着咱们正在跟着时辰的推移将计策从头编削到更中性的水平，咱们正在以咱们认为得当经济发展的模范前进。在基本场景下，经济发展的方式可能会导致咱们走得更快或更慢，但这等于基本场景所说的。
问题7： If I could follow up on the balance sheet in 2019 when you did the mid cycle adjustment， you ceased the balance sheet runoff with a larger cut. Today， is there any should there be any signal inferred about how the committee would approach end state on the balance sheet policy?
接洽2019年的钞票欠债表，那时您进行了中期周期编削，罢手了钞票欠债表缩减，并进行了更大的降息。今天，是否有任何信号可以推断委员会将怎样处理钞票欠债表计策的最终状态？
回答7：
So in the current situation， reserves have really been stable. They haven't come down. So reserves are still abundant and expected to remain so for some time. As you know， the shrinkage in our balance sheet has really come out of the overnight. RFP， so I think what that tells you is we're not thinking about stopping runoff because of this at all. We know that these two things can happen side by side， in a sense， they're both a form of normalization. And so for a time， you can have the balance sheet shrink， you would also be cutting rates.
因此，在刻下情况下，银行储备金确乎很镇静。它们莫得下落。因此储备金仍然浪掷，预计还会捏续一段时辰。如您所知，咱们的钞票欠债表的缩减确乎是整夜之间发生的。咱们压根莫得谈判会罢手缩表。咱们知说念这两件事（降息+缩表）可以同期发生，从某种意旨上说，它们齐是一种广大化面容。因此，在一段时辰内，您可以缩减钞票欠债表，同期还可以裁汰利率。
问题8： just following up on rising unemployment， is it your view that this is just a function of a normalizing labor market? amid improved supply， or is there anything to suggest that something more concerning， perhaps is taking place here given that other metrics of labor demand have softened. is do you not? Why should we not expect a further deterioration in labor market conditions if policy is still restricted?
跟进逍遥率上升的问题，您是否定为这只是劳能源市集广大化的完了？供应加多，照旧有什么迹象标明，鉴于劳能源需求的其他缱绻也曾减弱，也许正在发生更令东说念主担忧的事情？您不这样认为吗？若是利率计策仍然具有截止性，为什么咱们不应该预期劳能源市集情景会进一步恶化？
回答8：
So I think what we're seeing is clearly labor market conditions have cooled off by any measure， as I talked about in Jackson Hole and but they're still at a level. The level of those conditions is actually pretty close to what I would call maximum employment， you know. So you're close to mandate， maybe at mandate on that. So what's driving it? Clearly， payroll job creation has moved down over the last few months， and this bears watching， meant by many other measures， the labor market has returned to or below 2019 levels， which was a very good， strong labor market， but this is more sort of 2018、2017. So the labor market bears close watching， and we'll be giving it that but ultimately， we think， we believe， with an appropriate recalibration of our policy that we can continue to see the economy growing and that will support the labor market in the meantime， if you look at the growth and economic activity data， retail sales data that we just got， second quarter GDP， all of this indicates an economy that is still growing at a solid pace， So that should also support the labor market over time.
很显豁，无论以何种圭臬掂量，劳能源市集情景齐也曾降温，就像我在杰克逊霍尔会议上谈到的那样，但它们仍然处于一定水平。这些条件的水平骨子上相等接近我所说的充分干事。是以接近好意思联储的法定处事，也许也曾达到法定处事了。那么是什么推动了它呢？显豁，干事岗亭创造在曩昔几个月有所下落，这值得柔和，从许多其他缱绻来看，劳能源市集也曾回到或低于 2019 年的水平，那时是一个相等好、健硕的劳能源市集，但当今更像是 2018 年、2017 年的情况。因此，劳能源市集需要密切柔和，咱们也会赐与柔和，但最终，咱们信赖，通过妥贴编削计策，咱们可以陆续看到经济增长，这将复旧劳能源市集，与此同期，若是你望望增长和经济举止数据、咱们刚刚得到的零卖额数据、第二季度的GDP，统统这些齐标明好意思国经济仍在稳步增长，因此这也应该会跟着时辰的推移复旧劳能源市集。
So， but again we're watching， and just on the point about starting to see rising layoffs. If that were to happen， wouldn't the committee already be too late in terms of avoiding a recession?
追问：是以，咱们再次柔和，况兼恰巧裁人东说念主数驱动上升之际。若是发生这种情况，委员会在幸免经济零落方面是否也曾太迟了？
So we're， that's， you know， our plan， of course， has been to begin to recalibrate， and we're not seeing rising claims， we're not seeing rising layoffs， we're not seeing that， and we're not hearing that from companies that that's something that's getting ready to happen. So we're not waiting for that because， you know， there is thinking that the time to support the labor market is when it's strong， and not when you begin to see the White House. There's some more on that. So that's the situation we're in. We have， in fact， begun the cutting cycle now， and we'll be watching， and that will be one of the factors that we consider. Of course， we're going to look at the totality of the data as we make these decisions， meeting by meeting.
咱们的计较天然是驱动从头编削计策，咱们莫得看到逍遥辅助苦求数目上升，也莫得看到裁人东说念主数上升，也莫得听到公司说这些事情行将发生。是以咱们不会恭候，因为，有东说念主认为，复旧劳能源市集的最好时机是当它健硕时。对于这少许，还有更多内容。这等于咱们所处的情况。事实上，咱们当今也曾驱动了降息周期，咱们会密切柔和（劳能源市集降温），这将是咱们谈判的身分之一。天然，在每次会议上，咱们齐会检验所罕有据，然后作念出这些决定。
问题9：what would constitute for you and the committee a deterioration in the labor market you're pricing in， basically， by the end of next year， 200 basis points of cuts just to maintain a higher unemployment Rate. Would you be moving to a more preemptive monetary policy style， rather than， as you did with inflation， waiting until the data gave you a signal
什么会对您和委员会组成“劳能源市集的恶化”？您认为，到来岁底，降息200个基点只是为了保管较高的逍遥率。您会承袭更具先下手为强的货币计策格调吗？而不是像您在通胀问题上所作念的那样，比及数据给您一个信号再行径。
回答9：
we're going to be watching all of the data， right? So if， as I mentioned in my remarks， if the labor market were to slow unexpectedly， then we have the ability to react to that by cutting faster. We're also going to be looking at our other mandate. Though we have greater confidence now that inflation is moving down to 2% but at the same time， our plan is that we will be at 2% over time. So and policy we think is still restrictive， so that should still be happening.
咱们会柔和所罕有据，因此，若是劳能源市集有时放缓，咱们有才气通过加速降息来搪塞。咱们还将柔和另一个通胀的处事。诚然咱们当今更有信心通胀率正降到2%，但与此同期，咱们的计较是跟着时辰的推移通胀率将达到 2%。因此，咱们认为计策仍然具有截止性，因此应该仍会如斯。
I'm just curious as to how sensitive you'll be to the labor market， since you forecast we are going to see higher unemployment， and it is going to take a significant amount of monetary easing to just maintain it.
追问：我只是酷好您对劳能源市集的明锐度怎样，因为您预测咱们将会看到更高的逍遥率，而且需要多量的货币宽松计策才能保管这种状态。
So you know what I would say is we don't think we need to see further losing in labor market conditions to get inflation down to 2% but we have a dual mandate. And I think you can take this， this whole action as takes take a step back. What have we been trying to achieve? We're trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with disinflation. That's what we're trying to do， and I think you can take today's action as a sign of our strong commitment to achieve that goal.
我想说的是，咱们认为咱们不需要看到劳能源市集情景进一步恶化来把通胀率降至2%，但咱们有双重处事。我认为你可以把这统共行径看作是退一步念念考。咱们一直在努力终了什么主见？咱们正努力终了一种景观，即归附价钱镇静，而不会出现存时陪同通货紧缩而来的那种倒霉的逍遥率上升。这等于咱们正在努力作念的事情，我认为你可以把今天的行径看作是咱们终了这一主见的刚毅承诺的符号。
问题10：You're describing this view that you don't think you're behind when it comes to the job market. Can you walk us through the specific data points that you found to be most helpful in the discussions at this meeting? You mentioned a couple， but would you be able to walk us through what that dashboard told you as far as what you know about the job market now?
您描述了这种不雅点，即好意思联储认为我方在干事市集方面并不落伍。能向咱们先容一下您认为在本次会议操办中最有匡助的具体数据点吗？您提到了几个，刻下干事市集还有哪些信息去柔和？
回答10：
Sure. So start with unemployment， which is the single most important one. Probably you're at 4.2% that's， you know， I know that's higher than we were. We were used to seeing numbers in the mid and even below mid threes last year. But if you look back over the sweep of the years， that's a low， that's a very healthy unemployment rate. And anything in the low fours is， A， really， is a good labor market. So that's one thing. Participation is at high levels， it's， you know， we've had， we're right adjusted for demographics， for aging， participation， said， at pretty high levels， that's a good thing. Wages are still a bit above what would be their wage increases. Rather， are still just a bit above where they would be over the very longer term to be consistent with 2% inflation， but they're very much coming down to what that sustainable level is. So we feel good about that. Vacancies over per unemployed is back to what is still a very strong level. It's not as high as it was. That number reached two to one， two vacancies for every unemployed person as measured， it's now around one， but that's still， that's still a very good number. I would say quits have come back down to normal levels. I mean， that could go on and on there.
起初是逍遥率，这是最首要的一个身分。逍遥率4.2%比客岁要高，曩昔逍遥率在3%的中段或更低，若是总结这些年，你会发现这是一个很低、相等健康的逍遥率。任何低于4%的逍遥率齐标明劳能源市集情景致密。这是一方面。干事参与率处于高水平，咱们也曾证据东说念主口统计学、老龄化等身分进行了编削，干事参与率处于格外高的水平，这是件善事。工资仍略高于应有的工资增长水平，更真实地说，仍略高于与2%通胀率保捏一致的永恒工资增长水平，但它们正在逐渐降至可捏续水平。是以咱们对此感到恬逸。每名逍遥东说念主员对应的空白职位数下落，但仍曲直常健硕的水平，莫得以前那么高了，以前达到二比一，即每名逍遥者对应两个职位空白，当今大致是一比一，这仍是一个相等好的数字。离职率也曾回落到广大水平，这种情况可能会一直捏续下去。
There are many， many employment indicators. What do they say? They say this is still a solid labor market. The question isn't the level. The question is that there has been change over， particularly over the last few months， and you know， so what we say is， as the upside risk to inflation have really come down， the downside risk to employment have increased ， and because we have been patient and held our fire on cutting wall inflate While inflation has come down. I think we're now in a very good position to manage the risks to both of our goals.
干事缱绻有许多。它们奈何说呢？它们说这仍然是一个踏实的劳能源市集。问题不在于水平。问题在于，极端是在曩昔几个月里，情况发生了变化，是以咱们说，跟着通胀的上行风险确乎下落，干事的下行风险加多了，因为咱们一直保捏耐性，在通胀下落的同期，限度通胀。我认为咱们当今处于相等成心的位置，可以管束咱们两个处事各自濒临的风险。
And what do you expect to learn between now and November that will help inform the scale of the cut of the next meeting?
追问：您渴望从当今到 11 月之间了解到哪些信息，以协助笃定下次会议的降息幅度？
You know， more data. The usual. Don't look for anything else. We'll see another labor report. We'll see another jobs report. I think we get. We actually， we could to， we get a second jobs report on the day of the meeting. I think， no， no， on the Friday before the meeting. So and inflation data we'll get， we'll get all this data we'll be watching. You know， it's always a question of， look at the incoming data and ask， what are the implications of that data for the evolving outlook and the balance of risks? And then go through our process and think， what's the right thing to do? Is policy where we want it to be， to foster the achievement of our goals over time. So that's what it is， and that's what we'll be doing.
你知说念，更多的数据。和往常相通。不要再寻找其他东西了。咱们将看到两份劳能源陈诉，咱们还将取得通胀数据，即统统这些咱们将柔和的数据。你知说念，这老是一个问题，望望传入的数据，并问，这些数据对不休变化的出路和风险平衡有何影响？然后通过咱们的经由念念考，什么是正确的作念法？计策是否顺应咱们的渴望，是否有助于终了咱们的主见。是以这等于咱们要作念的。
问题11：we've only been running a little above 100，000 jobs a month on payrolls last three months. Do you view that level of job creation as worrying or alarming， or would you be would you be content if we were to kind of stick at that level? And relatedly， one of the welcome trends over the last couple of years has been labor market steam coming out through job openings， falling rather than job losses. Do you think that trend has further to run? Or do you see risk that further labor market cooling will have to come through job losses?
曩昔三个月，金港赢优配咱们每月新增干事岗亭仅略高于10万个。您认为这种干事岗亭加多水平令东说念主担忧或发出警报吗？或者，若是咱们一直保捏这种水平，您会感到恬逸吗？与此联系的是，曩昔几年中令东说念主纷扰的趋势之一是劳能源市集热度通过职位空白开释出来，而不是职位减少。您认为这种趋势会捏续下去吗？或者，您是否定为劳能源市集进一步降温的风险将不得欠亨过职位减少来终了？
回答11：
So on the job creation， it depends on the inflows， right? So if you're having millions of people come into the labor force then， and you're creating 100，000 jobs， you're going to see unemployment go up. So it really depends on what's the trend underlying the volatility of people coming into the country. We understand there's been quite an influx across the borders， and that has actually been one of the things that's allowed unemployment rate to rise as and the other thing is just the slower hiring rate， which is something we also watch carefully. So it does depend on what's happening on the supply side and on the curve.
干事创造取决于东说念主口流入干事市集，是以，若是罕有百万东说念主参加劳能源市集，而且只创造了10万个干事岗亭，那么逍遥率就会上升。是以，这骨子上取决于流入该国的东说念主口波动背后的趋势。咱们知说念跨境外侨流入量格外大，这骨子上是导致逍遥率上升的原因之一，另一个身分是招聘速率放缓，这亦然咱们密切柔和的身分。是以，这确乎取决于供应方面和供需弧线的情况。
So we all felt on the committee， not all， but I think everyone on the committee felt that job openings were so elevated that they could fall a long way before you hit the part of the curve where job openings turned into higher unemployment， job loss. And yes， I mean， I think we are. It's hard to know that. You can't know these things with great precision， but certainly it appears that we're very close to that point， if not at it so that further declines in job openings will translate more directly into into unemployment. But it's been， it's been a great ride down. I mean， we've seen a lot of of tightness come out of the labor market in that form without it resulting in lower employment.
因此，我认为委员会的每个东说念主齐认为，职位空白数目如斯之高，是以可以永劫辰下落直到传导称更高的逍遥率上升。很难知说念何时达到这少许。你不可能相等准确地知说念这些事情，但可以肯定的是，咱们相等接近阿谁点，致使当今齐可能就在这个点上了，那么职位空白的进一步减少将更平直地转机为逍遥。但这是一个纷乱的下落过程。我的道理是，咱们也曾看到劳能源市集以这种面容缓解了许多垂危景观，但并莫得导致干事率下落。
问题12：so we've heard some speculation that you may be going with the federal funds rate to three and a half， maybe under 4% and there's basically an entire generation that has experienced zero or near zero federal fund rate as something we're heading in that direction. Again. What's the likelihood that cheap money is now the norm?
咱们听到一些料到，称联邦基金利率可能会降至 3.5%，也许低于 4%，而基本上整整一代东说念主齐资格过零或接近零的联邦基金利率，咱们正朝着这个方上前进。低价货币/超低利率从头成为常态的可能性有多大？
回答12：
So this is a question. You mean， after we get through all of this， it's just great question that we just we can only speculate about. Intuitively， most many， many people anyway， would say we're probably not going back to that era where there were trillions of dollars of sovereign bonds trading at negative rates， long term bonds trading at negative rates. And it looked like the neutral rate was might even be negative. So there was people were issuing debt， issuing debt at negative rates. It seems that's so far away. Now， my own sense is that that we're not going back to that， but you know， honestly， we're going to find out. But you know， it feels， it feels to me and that the neutral rate is is probably significantly higher than it was back then. How high is it? I just don't think we know it's again， we only know it by its works.
咱们只可对此进行推测。直观上，大多数东说念主会说，咱们可能不会回到阿谁期间，当地罕有万亿好意思元的主权债券以负利率往还，永恒债券以负利率往还，而且那时看起来中性利率致使可能为负。是以有东说念主在以负利率刊行债务。这似乎距离当今也曾很远处了。我的嗅觉是咱们不会回到阿谁期间，我嗅觉中性利率可能比那时高得多。它有多高？我也不知说念，只可通过它的处事来了解它。
One more， how do you respond to the criticism that will likely come that a deeper rate cut now before the election， has some political motivations.
追问：还有一个问题，您怎样回答可能出现的品评，即在选举前大幅降息是出于某些政事动机？
Yeah， so， you know， this is my fourth presidential election at the at the Fed， and you know， it's always the same. We're always， we're always going into this meeting in particular and asking， what's the right thing to do for the people we serve. And we do that， and we make a decision as a group， and then we announce it， and it's that's always what it is. It's never about anything else. Nothing else is discussed. And I would also point out that the things that we do really affect economic conditions for the most part with with a lag. So nonetheless， this is what we do. Our job is to support the economy on behalf of the American people， and if we get it right， this will benefit the American people significantly. So this really concentrates the mind， and it's something we all take very， very seriously. We don't put up any other filters. I think if you start doing that， I don't know where you stop. And so we just want to do that.
这是我在好意思联储第四次资格好意思国总统大选，你知说念，老是相通。咱们老是问我方，对咱们服务的好意思国东说念主民来说，什么是正确的事情。咱们这样作念，咱们动作一个团体作念出决定，然后咱们晓示它，它老是如斯。它从不涉偏激他任何事情。莫得其他操办。我还要指出的是，咱们所作念的事情确乎在很猛进程上影响了经济情景，而且存在滞后恶果。是以尽管如斯，这等于咱们的处事。咱们的处事是代表好意思国东说念主民复旧经济，若是咱们作念对了，这将极地面造福好意思国东说念主民。是以这确凿让咱们蚁集防备力，这是咱们齐相等相等嗜好的事情。咱们莫得缔造任何其他过滤器。不然若是你驱动这样作念，我不知说念你会在何处停驻来。
问题13：My first question is，very simply， what message are you trying to send American consumers， the American people with this unusually large rate cut?
我的第一个问题很轻便：通过此次不同寻常的大幅降息，您想向好意思国花消者、好意思国东说念主民传达什么信息？
回答13：
I would just say that， you know， the US economy is in a good place and and our decision today is designed to keep it there. More specifically， the economy is growing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down closer to our 2% objective over time， and the labor market is is still in solid shape. So our intention is really to maintain the strength that we currently see in the US economy， and we'll do that by returning rates from their high level， which has really been the purpose of which has been to get inflation under control. We're going to move those down over time to a more normal level over time，
我只想说，好意思国经济情景致密，咱们今天的决定旨在保捏这种情景。更具体地说，经济正在稳步增长。跟着时辰的推移，通胀正鄙人降接近咱们2%的主见，劳能源市集仍然情景致密。是以咱们的意图骨子上是保捏咱们面前看到的好意思国经济的健硕势头，咱们将通过把利率从高位拉低来终了这一主见，保捏利率高位的目的是限度通胀。咱们将跟着时辰推移将利率降至更广大的水平。
just a follow up to that， listening to you talk about inflation moving meaningfully down to 2% is the Federal Reserve effectively declaring a decisive victory over inflation and rising prices.
追问：听您议论通胀率大幅下落至2%，这骨子上意味着好意思联储在抗争通胀和物价飞腾方面取得了决定性的到手吗？
No， we're not so inflation. You know what we say is we want inflation. The goal is to have inflation move down to 2% on a sustainable basis. And， you know， we're not really， we're close， but we're not really at 2% and I think we're going to want to see it be， you know， around 2% and close to 2% for some time， but we're certainly not doing， we're not we're not saying mission accomplished or anything like that. But I have to say， though we're encouraged by the progress that we have made.
不，咱们不会那么回想通胀。咱们想要（一定进程的）通货推广。主见是让通胀率可捏续地降至 2%。但咱们当今莫得真实达到2%，可能会在一段时辰内接近2%，是以咱们不会说（抗击通胀的）任务也曾完成了这种话。但我必须说，咱们对所取得的进展感到饱读动。
问题14：
我只是想知说念委员会怎样看待咱们所看到的捏续的住房通胀，您认为住房通胀率这样高，合座通胀能回到2%主见吗？
回答14：
Yeah， so housing inflation is the is the one piece that is kind of dragging a bit. If I can say we know that market rents are doing what we would want them to do， which is to be moving up at relatively low levels， but they're not rolling over that the leases that are rolling over are not coming down as much， and OER is coming in high. So， you know， it's been slower than we expected. I think we now understand that it's going to take some time for those lower market rents to get into this. But， you know， the direction of travel is clear， and as long as market rents remain， you know， relatively low inflation over time that will show up just the time it's taking now， several years， rather than just one or two cycles of of annual lease renewals. So that's， I think we understand that now， I don't think the outcome is in doubt again. As long as market rents remain under control， the outcome is not as in doubt. So I would say it's the rest of the rest of the portfolio， of the elements that go into core， PCE， inflation or have behaved pretty well. You know， they're all they all have some volatility. We will get down to 2% inflation， I believe， and I believe that ultimately， we'll get what we need to get out of the housing services piece too， some of your colleagues have experienced concern.
是的，住房通胀是一个有点牵累的身分。不外当今市集房钱正在作念咱们但愿它们作念的事情，即在相对较低的水平增长，但是续约房屋的房钱并莫得下落那么多，而OER却很高。是以，住房通胀降温的速率比咱们预期要慢。我认为咱们当今分解，那些较低的市集房钱需要一段时辰才能清楚作用。但是，前进的主见是明确的，独一市集房钱保捏相对较低的通胀，跟着时辰推移，拉低通胀的恶果就会娇傲出来，这需要几年，而不单是是一两个年度租约续签周期。是以，我不会因此质疑通胀降温。独一市集房钱保捏受控，完了就不会有疑问，另外，经济数据的其他部分，包括中枢PCE通胀等发扬齐格外可以。你知说念，它们齐有一定的波动性。我信赖，咱们的通胀率会降到 2%，我信赖，最终，咱们也会从住房服务部分取得所需的收益。
It's hard to gain that out. The housing market is in part frozen because of lock in with low rates. People don't want to sell their homes， so because they have a very low mortgage to be quite expensive to refinance. As rates come down， people will start to move more， and that's probably beginning to happen already. But remember， when that happens， you've got a you've got a seller， but you've also got a new buyer， in many cases. So it's not， you know， obvious how much additional demand that would make me the real issue with housing is that we have had and are on track to continue to have not enough housing. And so it's going to be challenging. It's hard to find to zone lots that are in places where people want to live. It's all of the aspects of housing are more and more difficult. And you know， where are we going to get the supply? And this is not something that the Fed can can really fix， but I think as we normalize rates， you'll see the housing market normalize. And I mean ultimately， by getting inflation broadly down and getting those rates normalized and getting the housing housing cycle normalized， that's the best thing we can do for householders. And then the supply question will have to be dealt with by the market and also by government.
致使，你知说念，这种情况发生的可能性有多大？你会怎样搪塞房地产市集？很难知说念。房地产市集（的供应量）在一定进程上被之前东说念主们锁定的低利率所冻结。东说念主们不想卖掉他们的屋子，因为他们的典质贷款利率很低，而再融资的资本格外高。跟着利率下落，东说念主们将驱动更多地搬家，这可能也曾驱动发生了。但请记取，当这种情况发生时，你有一个卖家，但在很厚情况下，你也会有一个新买家。是以，你知说念，有若干寥落的需求会让我感到不显豁。住房的真实问题是，咱们也曾领有并将陆续领有不及的住房供应。是以这将是一个挑战。很难找到东说念主们想住的所在的分区地块。住房的统统方面齐越来越贫瘠。你知说念，咱们要从何处取得供应？这不是好意思联储大要真实管束的问题，但我认为跟着利率广大化，你会看到房地产市集广大化。我的道理是，最终，通过裁汰通货推广率、使利率广大化、使住房周期广大化，这是咱们能为家庭作念的最好的事情。然后，供应问题必须由市集和政府来管束。
问题15：Just following up on some of the labor market talk earlier. You know， monetary policy operates with long and variable lags， and I'm wondering how much you see being able to keep the unemployment rate from rate right raising too much comes from the fact that you're starting to act now， and that's going to give people more room to run， versus just the labor market is strong. And then also， if I could following up on next question， do you see today's 50 basis point move as partially a response to the fact that you didn't cut in July， and that sort of gets you to the same place.
货币计策的运作具有永恒和可变的滞后性，我想知说念你认为大要进攻逍遥率上升太多的进程有多大，这要归功于你当今驱动承袭行径，这将给东说念主们更多的回旋余步，而不是只是因为劳能源市集健硕。然后，若是我可以跟进下一个问题，你是否定为今天降息50个基点是对你在7月莫得降息这一事实的回答和抵偿？
回答15：
So you're right about lags， but I would just point to the overall economy. You have an economy that is growing at a at a solid pace. If you look at forecasters or talk to companies， they'll say that they think 2025 should be a good year too. So there's no sense in the US economy. Basically fine， if you talk to market participants. I mean， I mean， you know， business people who are actually out there doing business. So I think， you know， I think we， I think our move is timely. I do. And as I said， you can， you can see our， our our 50 basis point move as as a commitment to make sure that we don't fall behind. So you're really asking about your second question. You're asking about July. And I guess if you， if you ask， you know， if we gotten the July report before the meeting， would we have cut we might well of we didn't make that decision， but you know that we might well have， I think that's not， you know， that doesn't really answer the question that we ask ourselves， which is， let's look， you know， when at this meeting， we're looking back to the July employment report， the August employment report， the two CPI reports， one of which came， of course， during blackout， and all the other things that I mentioned， we're looking at all of those things and we're asking ourselves， what's the right what's our what's the policy stance we need to move to? We knew it's clear that we clearly， literally everyone on the committee agreed that it's time to move. It's just how big， how fast you go， and what do you think about the pass forward? So this decision we made today had broad support on the committee， and I've discussed the path ahead. Elizabeth，
你对滞后的见地是对的，但我只想指出合座经济。好意思国经济正在稳步增长。若是你望望预测者或与公司交谈，他们会说他们认为2025年也应该是好岁首。是以好意思国经济基本上没问题。我认为咱们的举措是实时的。你可以把咱们的50个基点编削看作是一种承诺，以确保咱们不会落伍。若是在7月份FOMC会议前拿到当月非农数据，咱们那时是否会降息呢，可能会，但是我认为这并莫得真实回答咱们问我方的问题，那等于，让咱们望望，在此次会议上，咱们总结了7月份的干事陈诉、8 月份的干事陈诉、两份CPI陈诉，其中一份是在静默期内发布的，以及我提到的统统其他事情，咱们正在接洽统统这些事情，咱们在问我方，什么是正确的，咱们需要承袭什么样的计策立场？咱们知说念，很显豁，委员会中的每个东说念主齐欢跃是时候承袭行径了。只是限制有多大，速率有多快，你对异日利率旅途有什么见地？是以咱们今天作念出的这个决定得到了委员会的世俗复旧，我也曾操办了异日的说念路。
问题16：mortgage rates have already been dropping in anticipation of this announcement. How much more should borrowers expect those rates to drop over the next year?
按揭典质贷款利率也曾在预期降息时就下落了。预计来岁这些利率还会下落若干？
回答16：
Very hard for me to say that's from our standpoint. I can， I can't really speak the mortgage rates. I will say， you know， that will depend on on how the economy evolves. Our our intention， though， is we think that our policy was appropriately restrictive. We think that it's time to begin the process of recalibrating it to a level that's more neutral， rather than restricted. We expect that process to take some time， as you can see in the projections that we released today， and as if things work out according to that forecast， other rates in the economy will come down as well. However， the rate at which those things happen will really depend on how the economy performs. We can't see， we can't look a year ahead and know what the economy is to be doing.
从咱们的角度来看，我很难说。我弗成真实议论典质贷款利率。我会说，这取决于经济怎样发展。但咱们的意图是，咱们认为咱们的计策是妥贴的有截止性。咱们认为是时候驱动将其从头编削到更中性而不是保管截止性的水平了。咱们预计这个过程需要一些时辰，正如你在咱们今天发布的预测中所看到的，若是事情按照预测发展，经济中的其他利率也会下落。但是，这些事情发生的速率骨子上取决于经济的发扬。咱们无法看到，咱们无法预计一年后的经济情况。
What's your message to households who are frustrated that home prices have still stayed so high as rates have been high? What do you say to those households?
追问：对于那些因为利率居高不下而房价居高不下的家庭，您有什么话要说？
Well， I can what I can say to the public is that we had the highest we had a burst of inflation.Many other countries around the world had had a similar burst of inflation. And when that happens， part of the answer is that we raise interest rates in order to cool the economy off in order to reduce inflationary pressures. It's not something that people experience as pleasant， but at the end， what you get is low inflation restored. Price stability， restored. And a good definition of price stability is that people in their daily decisions， they're not thinking about inflation anymore. That's where everyone wants to be， is back to what's inflation， you know， just keep it low， keep it stable. We're restoring that. So what we're going through now， really， it restores it will benefit people over a long period of time. Price stability benefits everybody over a long period of time， just by virtue of the fact that they don't have to deal with inflation. So that's what's been going on. And I think we've made real progress. I completely we don't tell people how to think about the economy， of course， and of course， people are experiencing high prices， as opposed to high inflation， and we understand that's painful.
我可以告诉公众的是，咱们资格了最高的通货推广，天下上许多其他国度也资格过雷同的通货推广。当这种情况发生时，部摊派理办法是咱们升迁利率，以便冷却经济，从而减少通胀压力。这不是东说念主们会感到激动的事情，但最终，咱们得到的是归附低通胀。归附价钱镇静。价钱镇静的一个好界说是，东说念主们在日常决策中不再谈判通货推广。这等于每个东说念主齐但愿的，即保捏通胀在低位和镇静。咱们正在归附这种状态。是以咱们当今正在资格的，确凿，归附这种状态将在很长一段时辰内使东说念主们受益。价钱镇静在很长一段时辰内使每个东说念主齐受益，因为他们不消搪塞通货推广。这等于正在发生的事情。我认为咱们也曾取得了真实的最初。我澈底不会告诉东说念主们应该怎样看待经济，天然，东说念主们正在资格高物价，而不是高通胀，咱们交融这是倒霉的。
问题17：I was wondering if you could go through you said just at the beginning that coming into the blackout， there was like an open thought of 25 or 50. You know， the fact that we're either 25 or 50， I would sort of argue that when we had those two last speeches by Governor Waller and New York President John Williams， that they were， they were sort of saying that maybe a gradual approach was going to win the day. I mean， I sort of want to ask a seven part question about this. But I mean， could you talk， would you have cut rates by 50 basis points if the market had been pricing in， like， low odds of a 50 point move， like they were last Wednesday. You know， after the CPI number came out， there's a really small probability of a 50 point cut. Does it play playing your consideration at all.
好意思联储官员刚参加公开谈话的静默期时，东说念主们对于降息25个基点照旧50个基点捏怒放立场。理事沃勒和纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的谈话也说渐进式降息会占优势。若是市集订价的是不太可能降息50个基点，您此次还会大幅降息吗？市集的订价押注是否影响到好意思联储的决策？
回答17：
Thank you. We're always going to try to do what we think is the right thing for the economy at that time. That's what we'll do， and that's what we did today.
咱们老是会勇猛作念咱们认为对那时的经济成心的事情。这等于咱们要作念的，亦然咱们今天所作念的。
问题18：you've mentioned how closely you're watching the labor market， but you also noted that payroll numbers have been a little bit less reliable lately because of the big downward revisions. Does that put your focus overwhelmingly on the unemployment rate? And given the SEP projection of 4.4 basically being the peak in the cycle， would going above that be the kind of thing that would trigger another 50 basis point cut.
您提到过您密切柔和劳能源市集，但您也指出，由于际遇大幅下修，最近干事东说念主数的可靠性有所下落。这是否意味着您的防备力主要蚁集在逍遥率上？鉴于SEP预测的4.4%基本上是周期中的逍遥率峰值，高出这一水平是否会激勉另一次50个基点的大幅降息？
回答18：
So we will continue to look at that broad array of labor market data， including the payroll numbers. We're not discarding those. I mean， we'll certainly look at those， but we will mentally tend to adjust them based on the Q， C， E， W adjustment， which you referred to. There isn't a bright line， you know， it will be the light that the unemployment rate's very important， of course， but there isn't a single statistic or a single bright line over which that thing that might move， that would dictate one thing or another. We'll look at each meeting， we'll look at all the data on inflation， economic activity and the labor market， and we'll make decisions about is our policy stance where it needs to be to， you know， to foster over the medium term， our mandate goals. Yeah， so I can't， I can't say we， we have a bright line in mind.
咱们将陆续柔和世俗的劳能源市集数据，包括非农干事。咱们不会废弃这些数据。我的道理是，咱们肯定会柔和这些数据，但咱们在时势上会倾向于证据您提到的 QCEW 编削来编削它们。莫得一条明确的界线，天然，逍遥率相等首要，但莫得一个统计数据或一条明确的界线可以决定这件事或那件事。咱们会在每次会议上，检验接洽通货推广、经济举止和劳能源市集的所罕有据，并决定咱们的计策立场，以便在中期内促进咱们的授权处事。是以我弗成说咱们心中有一条明确的界线。
问题19：I know that you discussed earlier how the Fed does whatever the right thing is and nothing else factors in. But in general， can you talk about whether or not you believe a sitting US president should have a say in fed decisions on interest rates? Because that's something that former President Trump， who obviously points of view， has previously， suggested， and I know the Fed is designed to be independent， but why can you tell the public why you view that so important?
我知说念您之前操办过好意思联储会作念正确的事情，其他身分齐不谈判。但总的来说，您能否谈谈您是否定为现任好意思国总统应该对好意思联储的利率决策有发言权？因为这是前总统特朗普之前建议的，他显豁有我方的不雅点，我知说念好意思联储的想象初志是孤独的，但您为什么能告诉公众您认为这少许如斯首要呢？
回答19：
Sure， so countries that are democracies around the world， countries that are sort of like the United States， all have what are called independent central banks. And the reason is that that people have found， over time， that insulating the central bank from direct control by political authorities avoids making monetary policy in a way that that favors， maybe people who are in office as opposed to people who are not in office. So that that's， that's the idea， is that， you know， I think the data are clear that countries that have independent central banks， they get lower inflation. And so we're， you know， we're not， we do our work to serve all Americans. We're not serving any politician， any political figure， any cause， any issue， nothing. It's just maximum employment and price stability on behalf of all Americans， and that's how the other central banks are set up to it. It's a good institutional arrangement which has been good for the public， and I hope and strongly， strongly believe that it will. You know， continue.
天然，像好意思国这样的民主国度齐有所谓的孤独央行。原因是，跟着时辰推移，东说念主们发现，将央行与政事当局的平直限度碎裂开来，可以幸免制定只是成心于在位者的货币计策。这等于咱们的想法，我认为数据明晰地标明，领有孤独央行的国度通胀率较低。是以咱们的处事是为了服务统统好意思国东说念主。咱们不为任何政客、任何政事东说念主物、任何行状、任何议题服务，什么齐不为。咱们只是为统统好意思国东说念主终了最大化干事和价钱镇静，其他央行等于这样配置的。这是一个对公众成心的致密轨制安排，我但愿并信服它会陆续下去。
问题20：a couple regulatory developments in the past week that I want to ask you about. First last week， Vice Chair for supervision， Michael Barr outlined his views for the changes to the Basel three end game. I'm wondering if you are in line with him on those changes should be if those have support the board in a broad way that you're looking for， and if you think the other agencies are also fully on board with that approach
我想问您对于曩昔一周的几个监管发展。起初，上周好意思联储端庄监管的副主席Michael Barr详尽了他对巴塞尔左券三监管法则变更的见地。我想知说念您是否欢跃他的不雅点，是否其他机构也澈底复旧这种方法？
回答20：
So the answer to your question is that， yes， those those changes were negotiated between the agencies with my support and with my involvement， with the idea that we were going to re propose， we propose the changes that we， that Vice Chair Barr talked about， and then take comment on them. So yes， that that is， you know， that's happening with my support. That's not a final proposal， though. You understand， we're putting them out for comment. We're going to take comment and make appropriate changes that we don't have a， we don't have a calendar date for that. And as for the other agencies， you know， the idea is that we're all moving together. We're not moving separately. So that I don't， I don't know exactly where that is， but the idea is that we will move as a group to put this again out for comment， and then， you know， it'll， it'll come the comments will come back 60 days later， and we'll dive into them， and we'll try to bring this to a conclusion sometime in the first half of next year.
对你问题的回答是“是的”，这些变化是在我复旧和参与下由各机构协商达成的，咱们的想法是从头建议，咱们建议巴尔副主席谈到的变化，然后征求意见。是以是的，那是在我的复旧下发生的。但这不是最终提案。你知说念，咱们正在征求意见。咱们将征求意见并作念出妥贴的改变，但咱们莫得具体的日历。至于其他机构，你知说念，咱们的想法是咱们划一个行径。咱们不会分开行径。是以我不知说念具体在何处，但咱们的想法是，咱们将动作一个团队再次将这个问题建议来征求意见，然后，你知说念，60 天后咱们会收到辩驳，咱们会久了接洽它们，并尝试在来岁上半年的某个时候得出论断。
Then yesterday， there were merger reform finalizations from the other bank regulators. What does that have to do to align itself on merger?
追问：昨天，其他银行监管机构也敲定了并吞更正决议。这对并吞有什么影响？
You know， I would， I would bounce that question to Vice Chair Barr. It's a good question， but I don't have that today. Thanks Jennifer for the last question.
你知说念，我会把这个问题转交给巴尔副主席。这是个好问题，但我今天莫得谜底。
问题21：you said earlier that the decision today reflects with appropriate recalibration， strength in the labor market that can be maintained in the context of moderate growth， even though the policy statement says you view the risks to inflation and job growth as roughly balanced， given what you've said. Though today， I'm curious， are you more worried about the job market and growth than inflation? Are they not roughly balanced?
您之前说过，今天的决定反应了经过妥贴编削后，劳能源市集在和煦增长的布景下仍能保捏健硕，尽管计策声明中说，您认为通胀和干事增长的风险大致平衡，不外我很酷好，您是否更回想干事市集和增长而不是通胀？它们不是大致平衡的吗？
回答21：
No， I think， I think， and we think they are now roughly balanced. So if you go back for a long time， the risks were on inflation. We had historically tight labor market， historically tight. There was a severe labor shortage， so very， very hot labor market， and we had inflation way above target. So you know that said to us， concentrate on inflation. Concentrate on inflation. And we did for a while， and we and we kept at that， that the stance that we put in place 14 months ago was a stance that was focused on bringing down inflation. Part of bringing down inflation， though， is is cooling off the economy， and a little bit cooling off the labor market. You now have a cooler labor market， in part because of of our activity. So what that tells you is it's time to change our stance. So we did that. The sense of the change in the stance is that we're recalibrating our policy over time to a stance that will be more neutral. And today was we， I think we made a good， strong start on that. I think it was the right decision， and I think it should send a signal that we， you know， that we're committed to coming up with a good outcome here，
不，我认为，而且咱们认为当今它们大致平衡了。是以若是你总结很长一段时辰，风险在于通货推广过高。咱们的劳能源市集处于历史性垂危时间。劳能源严重长途，因此劳能源市集相等相等火爆，而且通货推广率远高于主见。是以你知说念，这告诉咱们，要蚁集元气心灵搪塞通货推广。咱们确乎这样作念了一段时辰，况兼咱们一直坚捏这样作念，14个月前咱们制定的立场是专注于裁汰通货推广。但是，裁汰通货推广的一部分是冷却经济，以及稍许冷却劳能源市集。当今劳能源市集冷却了，部分原因是咱们的举止。是以这告诉你是时候改变咱们的立场了。是以咱们这样作念了。立场改变的意旨在于，咱们正在跟着时辰的推移从头编削咱们的计策，使其立场愈加中立。而今天，我认为咱们在这方面取得了致密的起头。我认为这是正确的决定，我认为这应该发出一个信号，标明咱们死力于于达成一个好的完了。
to a shock now that could tip it into recession?
追问：大幅降息是否会令市集震悚并认为经济零落相近呢？
I don't think so. I don't there's as I look， well， let me look at it this way. I don't see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession， sorry， of a downturn is elevated. I Okay I don't see that， you see you see growth at a solid rate. You see inflation coming down and you see a labor market that's still at very solid levels. It's so， so I don't really see that now.
我不这样认为。面前，我莫得看到任何迹象标明经济零落的可能性加多。你看到经济增长率镇静。你看到通货推广率下落，你看到劳能源市集仍然处于相等镇静的水平。事实等于如斯，是以我当今确凿看不到这少许。
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